Crisis in Sudan: A Regional Power Battleground

THE SITUATION 

• The fall of El Fasher in the Darfur region to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) marks a major shift in the violent civil war in Sudan that has been raging since April, 2023 
• Over 150,000 people are estimated to be killed, ٧00,000 children are at risk of death from malnutrition, and nearly 13 million are displaced, and 24 million are going hungry  (U.N calls it the world’s largest humanitarian crisis)
• The recent development raises the risk of partition to Africa’s third largest country by area.
• The country has become the battleground for local, regional, and international players seeking control over resources (gold, minerals), livelihood (farmlands, water ways), and an access to the vital Red Sea shipping lanes where 12% of world’s trade passes

KEY PLAYERS

Primary Combatants

• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
  • Led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
  • Controls Khartoum (since March 2025), northern and eastern regions including Port Sudan and Red Sea coast
  • Seeks to preserve the traditional military’s political role, eliminate RSF and maintain control over Sudan
  • Has air power and heavy weaponry and support from Egypt, Turkey and Iran
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
  • Led by General Mohamed Dagalo ”Hemedti”
  • Controls all of Darfur region with its vast agricultural lands
  • Seeks legitimacy, political autonomy and control over Sudan’s gold mines
  • Has approximately 100,000 guerrilla fighters and backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE) and supported by Ethiopia

External Powers (ref)

• Egypt
  • Backs SAF and prefers stable allied government to protect Nile waterflow and stop Ethiopian influence
  • Protect its southern border and prevent mass migration flows to the north
• United Arab Emirates
  • Sees Hemedti and RSF as a valuable proxy to oppose political Islam
  • Seeks access to Sudan’s resources and a strategic position on the Red Sea 
• Qatar & Turkey
  • Support SAF for its Islamist leanings and to counter UAE
• Russia & Iran
  • Opportunistically seek strategic access to the Red Sea to compensate for losses in Syria and Mediterranean

HISTORY

Background

• Sudan has been under military rule since 1956 independence
• Security forces has been the most powerful player in politics with weak civilian institutions
• The country has a recurring cycle of coups and rebellion along multiple historical divides: 1) center vs periphery and North vs South divide, 2) Arab vs African divide, 3) Muslims vs Christians divide

Recent History

• Omar al-Bashir ruled for 30 years (1989-2019) through military force
• Bashir created the Janjaweed militia (later became RSF) to counter coup threads from within and to counter rebellions in Darfur
• In 2019, mass protests ousted Bashir raising hopes for a democratic transition
• 2019-2021 saw a power sharing arrangement between the military and civilians under new Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok
• In October 2021, Burhan (SAF) and Hemedti (RSF) jointly overthrow the civilian government of Hamdok

Immediate Trigger

• Tensions have built up over RSF integrations into Sudanese Army and power sharing arrangements
• April 2023, fighting erupted between RSF and SAF
• RSF captured Khartoum for 2 years and the country plunged into bloody civil war

GEOSTRATEGY & ECONOMICS & IDELOGY

Geopolitical Factors

• Red Sea is critical for global trade making the region a hotspot for great power competition (12% of world’s trade, 30% of global container traffic)
• Port Sudan (deep water harbour) has potential to be naval base to project power into the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula
• Nile water security is of great concern to neighboring Egypt
• Instability in Chad and Libya to the west enables weapons flow and smuggling

Economic Drivers

• Estimates suggest that Sudan has potential to produce ~80-100 tons of gold annually (3rd largest in Africa)
• Sudan is the largest agricultural producer in Africa and the Middle East that is strategic for food security in the region (breadbasket of the Middle East)
• Not fully tapped minerals like Chromium (estimated 1 million tons reserve), Iron Ore (2 billion tons), and others like Uranium and Manganese. 

Ideological Overcast

• Regional powers feared democratic movements post Arab spring and potential for revolutions spillover that could challenge monarchies or the status quo
• Rise of Islamist-led governments sparked concerns that new legitimacy could lead to political and social shift in the region

LIKELY SCENARIOS

Most Likely

• Sudan splits into at least two zones
  • SAF in north and east region including Khartoum, Port Sudan
  • RSF in all of Darfur and majority of southern regions
• Low intensity fighting along borders similar to Libya’s fragmentation

Alternative Scenarios

• War escalates into a regional conflict
  • Egypt deploys troops on the ground
  • Ethiopia seizes disputed territories
• Economic and social collapse with famine killing hundreds of thousands
• Terrorist groups emerging in lawless regions

SIGNALS TO WATCH

Escalation indicators 

• Ethnic cleansing in Darfur
• Regional spillover (foreign troops on Sudanese soil)

De-escalation indicators

• Joint ceasefire calls by UAE-Egypt